As I assemble the Anniversary 8 academy football card, my anticipation action is evocative of a band from the cine “Holes”: “It’s so hot, Sam, but I feel so cold.”
It’s 90-something degrees alfresco in Arizona, but my reads on academy football are cooling rapidly. Weather forecasts on Saturday accept me overthinking. Lines are accepting tighter and tighter as the weeks go by. Also, afterwards the appearance from “Holes” says that line, she’s about anon apathetic by a antagonistic yellow-spotted lizard.
But hey! We’re good. Be abiding to boutique about for the best numbers if you adjudge to appendage (or fade).
Wager: Ohio -16.5
Teams like one-win Bowling Green charge any array of achievement to deliver their season. The Falcons about captured their signature win aftermost weekend as 14-point underdogs to Western Michigan. Instead, they blown a fourth-quarter advance and fell to 1-6. It was actual Bowling Green.
If Bowling Green’s activity to break in games, the casual d needs to be there. On Saturday, I’m not abiding the Falcons can await on it too much.
Weather forecasts in Athens, Ohio, alarm for a 50 percent adventitious of rain and 12-14 mph winds, so you ability accept the active amateur would accept the edge. Aback Bowling Green ranks aftermost in the country adjoin the rush, it’s a bright advantage for Ohio. Alike on abeyant cleanup assignment aback they’re arena “conservatively,” the Bobcats should be able to accumulate the scoreboard abettor active adjoin a Falcons aegis that’s giving up 325.1 yards on the arena per game.
Wager: Over 61.5
This d is agitated to dissect. Put addition in a cryogenic alcove for the accomplished two years, again acquaint them the Oklahoma-TCU absolute is 61 in 2018, and they’d unload their retirement armamentarium on the over.
The contrarian comedy is the beneath now that the apple knows TCU is decidedly bigger defensively than offensively. I’m not adage the market’s overcorrected, but it’s absolutely this affectionate of overthinking and accepting too beautiful that makes it accessible to discount accessible plays.
Offensively, cipher is bigger than Oklahoma – not Alabama, not Ohio State, not anyone. Afterwards Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeyes ripped up the Horned Frogs for 526 yards and 40 credibility (it should accept been afterpiece to 50), there’s no acumen Kyler Murray and the Sooners can’t run amok, accustomed the abhorrent similarities.
And yes, Oklahoma got a new arresting coordinator. Great. Ruffin McNeill’s gotten babble reviews aback demography over for Mark Stoops, but there are two questions: Accustomed Oklahoma’s personnel, can McNeill alike fix the defense? And can the Sooners accomplish those aliment in 10 days?
TCU’s breach is still appealing blah. So is Oklahoma’s defense. Let me watch all the 4.4 acceleration on abounding affectation Saturday. #MakeBig12OversGreatAgain
Wager: Over 71
Sticking with accessible plays adjoin abeyant allurement plays, Coastal Carolina and UMass accommodated in what should be a clue accommodated – “should” actuality the key word.
The two defenses haven’t been able to stop a soul. Only red-zone woes or turnovers in additional area can anticipate this d from sailing over the total.
Just booty a attending at some of the arresting statistics. Coastal Carolina’s aegis is 93rd in the country in canyon yards per achievement (12.3) and 129th in blitz yards per attack (7.6); UMass ranks 110th (13.7) and 124th (6.1) in the aforementioned categories.
Meanwhile, both offenses boilerplate over 30 credibility per d and should be able to move up and bottomward the acreage at will.
Recommended Pick: Beneath 57
I anticipation the over was basically automated – the Crimson Tide could awning it themselves. Then, it dawned on me.
Standing on the adverse amusement is Jeremy Pruitt, a above Nick Saban assistant.
By now you’ve heard that Saban is best adjoin above assistants. Except bodies balloon the added allotment of the story: The Alabama drillmaster avoids active up the account on his above coaches.
That’s not the capital acumen I’m advising the under, however. Tennessee’s breach is still a agglomeration of being befuddled at the bank with hopes that article will stick. Aftermost weekend at Auburn, the Vols aloof threw endless jump assurance to their big advanced receivers, who won every 50-50 25-75 ball. That blazon of assembly isn’t sustainable.
There are added angles to tap into – Bama gets LSU next, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ability not be 100 percent. But if you’re in charge of points, I don’t anticipate Tennessee can do it a additional anniversary in a row afterwards blind 30 on Auburn.
Recommended Pick: Buffalo -1
Weather abstracts to comedy a huge role in the MAC showdown Saturday. We accent beforehand in the anniversary why Buffalo should accept a brace of advantages.
Recommended Pick: Houston -11.5
This ability be a abhorrent antagonism for Navy.
Led by arresting end Ed Oliver, Houston’s one of the best teams in the country adjoin the run. I anticipation the Cougars’ blitz aegis ability be a byproduct of arena adjoin pass-happy teams in the AAC – askew the yards per d based on beneath opportunities – but it’s not. Houston is acceptance 2.9 yards per carry, acceptable for seventh in the nation. That doesn’t augur able-bodied for the Midshipmen, who run the brawl on an boilerplate of 58.8 plays per game.
Recommended Pick: Beneath 45
Here’s addition weather-impacted d with a 90 percent adventitious of rain and conceivably some wind to boot. Totals set lower than the two teams’ accumulated scoring averages, like this one, go beneath almost 58 percent of the time.
Virginia-Duke appearance a brace of top 25 scoring defenses that should additionally get some advice from the precipitation.
Recommended Pick: Michigan State 7
As a Michigan fan with an aloof wallet, I apprehend Jim Harbaugh to attempt in one aspect of the d Saturday: The breach will either abort to account a touchdown in the aboriginal three quarters, or the aegis will accede to quarterback Brian Lewerke and the Spartans’ breach and accord up 14 in the first. I’ve apparent it appear too abounding times to count.
Michigan State hasn’t put it all calm and isn’t yet up to abounding strength, but it can still booty abroad Michigan’s active game. In what should be a low-scoring affair, I’d grab the seven with the home team.
Recommended Pick: Nevada 3
Getting Ty Gangi aback beneath centermost should boost a Nevada breach that’s struggled in the aftermost two weeks after him. These two teams are bristles spots afar from anniversary added in S&P rankings, so the band is aloof about right. However, I’d booty a action on Nevada aerial off the island with a win.
Recommended Pick: San Jose State 27.5
San Diego State’s had agitation putting teams abroad as the admired in contempo past. A low-scoring d ability be in the works, authoritative a four-touchdown ‘dog adorable in a late-night Mountain West showdown.
Top plays: 19-14-1Overall record: 36-33-1
Alex Kolodziej is theScore’s action writer. He’s a alum of Eastern Illinois who has been complex in the sports action industry for 11 years. He can adduce every band from “Rounders” and appreciates franchises that consistently abrasion alternating jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
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